NEPSE Market Cap History and GDP Chart
Buffett Indicator
NEPSE Monthly Change by Market Cap
Historical PerformanceNepal Share Market Capitalization Record
Historical Data Table| Date | Market Cap (M) | GDP (M) | Buffett Ratio | Index |
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NEPSE Market Cap vs. GDP & Returns Heatmap (2003–2026)
The interactive tools on this website are designed to help determine the Buffett indicator (Market Capitalization to GDP ratio) and display the Historical Returns Heatmap for NEPSE. With the help of these indicators, we can gain a unique perspective into the share market of Nepal over the last 22 years. Looking the NEPSE Index is a useful way to analyze the market, these additional signals will provide even more insights.
The tools are-
1. Valuation Trends (The Chart)
The top chart compares the Total Market Capitalization of NEPSE over time against Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). You can also overlay the NEPSE Index on the same chart.
See how the Market Cap (Blue line) always stays under the Annual GDP (Green line). The chart shows that our market capitalization has never exceeded the size of the national economy. This isn’t always the case for top global markets. However, for us, instead of increasing, the market corrects once it approaches the GDP amount.
2. Historical Performance (The Heatmap)
The bottom chart breaks down market returns by day, month, and year. The table allows you to compare index and market cap change by day, week, month, quarter, and year. Our tool supports both Nepalese (BS) and Gregorian (AD) calendar systems. You can analyze performance across the two calendar systems.
Nepal's financial year ends in Asar and begins in Shrawan. In AD, the months are June, July, and August. Usually, these are the most active months on NEPSE, where there are more UPs than DOWNs. Shrawan is also known as the green month.If Shrawan is green, the following months are usually green. The opposite is also true.
In the heatmaps, the data is color-coded. You can compare data across different periods. There may be a pattern in there that you can spot. They say, "History tends to rhyme." Use the heatmap data to calculate the chances of the market giving out a positive return for the period of your choice.
Key Market Highlights from the Charts
By analyzing over two decades of financial history, we can observe the massive scale of growth in the Nepali share market:
- Historic Growth: In 2003, the entire market was worth only 35 Billion NPR. Since then, it has grown huge as the market became more modern.
- What changed things: You can see how big events helped the market grow, specifically new rules from SEBON and the switch to online trading, which made buying and selling easier.
- All-Time High: The market created history in mid-2025, reaching an all-time high as the valuation crossed NRs 5 Trillion.
- Momentum Clusters: If you look at the Heatmap, you will see that Green and Red boxes rarely appear alone—they come in groups (clusters). This shows that NEPSE is a "momentum" market. When the market is confident (Bull Run), it tends to stay green for months. When it loses confidence, it can stay red for a while. This visual helps you identify which cycle we are currently in.
- The GDP Limit: Even with this record-breaking growth, the total value of the stock market was not able to cross Nepal's GDP. The size of the economy acts like a ceiling; the closest it got was on [calculating...].
Why This Data Matters for Investors
The Market Cap to GDP ratio is widely known as the Buffett Indicator. This metric is essential for long-term investors because it helps objectively identify if the market is historically overvalued (too expensive) or undervalued (a buying opportunity). Put simply, it acts as a reality check to see if stock prices have run too far ahead of the actual economy.
Similarly, the Returns Heatmap is crucial for your mindset. When you look at the grid, you will see that even in the best years, there are patches of red (loss). This teaches investors patience. It shows that market drops are normal and often temporary. Seeing the history of green returning after red helps you avoid panic selling during bad times.